Method and sources

Sources

• Ministry of Development, Fuel Price Observatory: daily national price bulletins (PDF) from 14 March 2017. Public data, attributed to the source.
• European Commission, Weekly Oil Bulletin: weekly prices for Greece from 3 January 2005 until the daily bulletins begin, and the VAT and excise history. Drachma amounts are converted at 340.750.
• 2000–2004: the semi-annual points of Appendix A (owner's dataset). There is no official source in the system for this period, so it is shaded as approximate. Appendix A's January 2005 price is far from the Commission's official price for that month, so the 2002–2004 points need checking.
• US Energy Information Administration (EIA): daily Brent spot price (Europe Brent Spot FOB). Public domain, attribution requested.
• European Central Bank: EUR/USD reference rate. Reuse permitted with attribution.
• Eurostat: HICP index for Greece (2015 = 100). Free reuse with attribution.
• World Bank: real GDP per capita, PPP, constant prices (CC BY 4.0).
• Excise duty and VAT: the rates as stated in the Ministry bulletins (Law 4389/2016).

Calculations

• crude = Brent ÷ (USD per EUR) ÷ (159 × 0.72), where 159 is litres per barrel and 0.72 the refining yield factor.
• pre-tax = pump ÷ (1 + VAT), with VAT at 24%.
• markup = max(0, pre-tax − crude − excise)
• zero-margin cost = (crude + excise) × (1 + VAT)
• gap = pump − zero-margin cost. It can be negative and is always shown.
• Adjustment: CPI factor = HICP(base) ÷ HICP(t), income factor = GDP(base) ÷ GDP(t), base being the latest published month and year. GDP is at constant prices, so inflation is not counted twice.
• Changes: each period uses the latest observation on or before the reference date. If none exists within 7 days, a dash is shown and nothing is extrapolated.

Limitations

• The breakdown is an estimate. The markup includes refining, distribution and retail.
• For diesel the breakdown is approximate. For LPG the excise is set per kilogram, so only prices are shown.
• Pump subsidies lower the recorded price, so the markup is understated by their amount.
• Brent is published with a lag of a few days. Until then the last available value is used and marked provisional.
• Some bulletins cannot be read at source (scanned files of August 2020, notices instead of bulletins, etc.) and are gaps in the series.

Disclaimer and disclosure: Prices are collected automatically from the official bulletins of the Ministry of Development and the other sources named. The calculations, the price breakdown and the code of this site were produced with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) and may contain errors. The breakdown is an estimate, the figures are indicative and they are not financial advice. Check the source before any decision.